Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress
Leader sits at 12% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
230-233
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
226-229
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$736
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
221 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Democratic party win
Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 226-229
KXDHOUSESEATS-27-228
Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 230-233
KXDHOUSESEATS-27-232
Will the Democratic party win 238-241 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 238-241
KXDHOUSESEATS-27-240
Will the Democratic party win 218-221 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 218-221
KXDHOUSESEATS-27-220
Will the Democratic party win 246-249 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 246-249
KXDHOUSESEATS-27-248
Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 249
KXDHOUSESEATS-27-249
Will the Democratic party win 242-245 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 242-245
KXDHOUSESEATS-27-244
Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 234-237
KXDHOUSESEATS-27-236
Will the Democratic party win 214-217 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 214-217
KXDHOUSESEATS-27-216
Will the Democratic party win 210-213 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 210-213
KXDHOUSESEATS-27-212
Will the Democratic party win below 210 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Below 210
KXDHOUSESEATS-27-210
Will the Democratic party win 222-225 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 222-225
KXDHOUSESEATS-27-224
Analysis
This contract settles based on the Democratic party's final House seat count in the 120th Congress, with an 11% probability assigned to the 230-233 range. This specific band represents one outcome among a wider distribution: contracts show material probability mass in ranges both below (226-229 at 10%) and above (234-237 at 10%), with significant tail risk toward either 210 seats or above 249. The narrow 11% probability reflects that while 230-233 is plausible, it is not a central expectation. The market appears to price higher uncertainty rather than consensus, as the leader and several runners-up all cluster around 8-12 cents. Key drivers include 2026 midterm performance against the White House party, redistricting effects that persist from 2022, and turnout dynamics in specific swing districts. The resolution will occur after November 2026 general election results are finalized and certified.
- ›The 230-233 range represents roughly 48-49% of current House seats, implying modestly above the historical average for opposition parties in midterm elections
- ›Market prices show roughly equal probability mass across multiple adjacent ranges (226-237 seats span 22% combined), suggesting high uncertainty about the exact outcome
- ›Significant tail risk exists with 8% probability for Democratic totals below 210 seats and 10% for above 249 seats, indicating the market is pricing material variance around central scenarios
- ›The 120th Congress begins in January 2027; resolution depends on November 2026 election results and subsequent certification without major vacancies or special elections before that date
- ›Trading volume concentrates in the 230-233 contract ($377 daily volume), while adjacent ranges show notably lower volume, suggesting either high confidence in this band or liquidity concentration
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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