Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2030?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2030?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. The market has experienced significant volatility over seven days, surging from 3¢ to 9¢ before settling at 6¢, suggesting recent uncertainty around NPVIC adoption momentum despite the extremely low current price.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant volatility over seven days, surging from 3¢ to 9¢ before settling at 6¢, suggesting recent uncertainty around NPVIC adoption momentum despite the extremely low current price. The 272% implied yield on Yes positions reflects the outsized payoff potential, but minimal liquidity ($245 open interest, $215 daily volume) and a wide 2¢ spread indicate thin market depth and potential difficulty executing larger trades. With nearly four years until expiration and only 209 electoral votes currently committed to the compact, reaching 270 requires significant additional state adoption, making the 6% probability plausible but worth monitoring for legislative developments.
Resolution rules
If states that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact possess at least 270 electoral votes before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXECCOMPACT-30 yes 100