Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2034?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2034?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2034. The market is pricing in only a 10% chance of the NPVIC reaching 270 electoral votes by 2034, despite having nearly 8 years remaining and currently holding 209 electoral votes (77% of the threshold).
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 10% chance of the NPVIC reaching 270 electoral votes by 2034, despite having nearly 8 years remaining and currently holding 209 electoral votes (77% of the threshold). The extremely asymmetric implied yields—104.8% for Yes versus 1.6% for No—combined with minimal liquidity ($93 open interest, $91 daily volume) and a wide 5¢ spread suggest this is a thin, illiquid market where the pricing may not reflect the relatively modest additional state support needed. The recent price movement from 3¢ to 11¢ over seven days indicates some recent bullish sentiment, though the low absolute volume makes this movement potentially noise-driven rather than conviction-based.
Resolution rules
If states that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact possess at least 270 electoral votes before Jan 1, 2034, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXECCOMPACT-30-34 yes 100