Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 3.00%?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 3.00%?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (99%) that the EFFR will exceed 3.00% by June 30, 2026, yet this conviction is undermined by minimal liquidity with only $300 open interest and $51 in 24-hour volume.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (99%) that the EFFR will exceed 3.00% by June 30, 2026, yet this conviction is undermined by minimal liquidity with only $300 open interest and $51 in 24-hour volume. The dramatic 2-cent price swing over seven days and the astronomical 15,619.8% implied yield on the "No" side suggest thin order books and potential mispricing, particularly given the moderate 0.568 neutral regime score that doesn't justify such extreme certainty about Fed policy 18 months forward. With 76 days to resolution and a 32 Cliff Risk Index, this market appears to be a low-conviction outlier rather than a reliable signal of monetary policy expectations.
Resolution rules
If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 is above 3.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEFFR-26JUL01-T3.00 yes 100