Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 3.50%?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 3.50%?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic volatility, surging 62 cents over seven days to 87¢, suggesting a significant shift in rate expectations or late-breaking economic data favoring higher rates through mid-2026.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic volatility, surging 62 cents over seven days to 87¢, suggesting a significant shift in rate expectations or late-breaking economic data favoring higher rates through mid-2026. The 25¢ spread and thin $300 daily volume indicate low liquidity despite $1,261 open interest, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. The extreme 859.3% implied yield on the No side combined with a low Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggests the market may be overpricing the probability of rates staying above 3.50%, presenting a potential contrarian opportunity for those betting on Fed rate cuts.
Resolution rules
If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEFFR-26JUL01-T3.50 yes 100