Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 5%?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBE.... This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (99%) that US effective tariff rates will exceed 5% in Q1 2026, with the price having risen from 90¢ over the past week, suggesting growing conviction around elevated tariffs.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (99%) that US effective tariff rates will exceed 5% in Q1 2026, with the price having risen from 90¢ over the past week, suggesting growing conviction around elevated tariffs. However, the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $40 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the 99¢ price potentially unreliable—the extreme 31,012% implied yield on the No side and 12 cliff risk index suggest this could be a mispriced outlier rather than a genuine market consensus. With only 14 days until expiration and resolution tied to specific FRED data series, traders should verify whether recent tariff policy developments justify this near-certainty pricing or if the illiquidity has created an arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEFFTARIFF-26APR30-T5 yes 100