Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 12.5%
Leader sits at 81% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 5%
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
55¢
Above 7.5%
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
21 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 5%?: Above 5%
KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T5
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 10%?: Above 10%
KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T10
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 7.5%?: Above 7.5%
KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T7.5
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 12.5%?: Above 12.5%
KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T12.5
Analysis
This market estimates a 60% probability that US effective tariff rates exceeded 12.5% in Q1 2026, calculated as customs duties collected divided by nominal goods imports. The current price reflects expectations about tariff policy implementation and trade dynamics in early 2026. Upward pressure on this rate could come from newly imposed duties or enforcement actions, while downward pressure would result from increased import volumes or lower duty collections. The resolution hinges on official US Census Bureau data releases for Q1 2026 trade figures, typically published in subsequent months. Current trading shows lower confidence in higher threshold scenarios (above 10% at 6%, above 12.5% at 3%), suggesting markets view substantial tariff escalation as unlikely despite the base case exceeding 5%.
- ›Q1 2026 tariff policy framework and any new duties implemented relative to baseline rates
- ›Relationship between nominal import volumes in Q1 2026 and customs duty collections
- ›Historical US effective tariff rates and deviation from recent trends in early 2026
- ›Contract price discrepancy showing 60% probability for above 5% but only 3% for above 12.5%, indicating steep probability decline at higher thresholds
- ›US Census Bureau data release timing and accuracy of preliminary versus final Q1 2026 trade statistics
What moved the line
- Jul 8Above 7.5%↑8pp43→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Above 5%↑6pp65→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Above 5%↑6pp71→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 4Above 10%↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 5Above 7.5%↓5pp51→46¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 25% · 1d
- Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 95% · 8d
- Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 95% · 8d
- Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 93% · 8d
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.6%last 62% · 14d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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