Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.2%?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and astronomical 27,933% implied yield unreliable indicators of true market sentiment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and astronomical 27,933% implied yield unreliable indicators of true market sentiment. The 9¢ bid-ask spread combined with only 13 days to expiry and a maximum cliff risk index of 10 suggests this contract is essentially inactive and potentially abandoned by traders. Spain's recent GDP growth has typically ranged 2-3% annually, making a 3.2% YoY flash estimate plausible but not consensus, yet the complete absence of trading activity prevents any meaningful probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above 3.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXESGDPYOYF-26APR30-T3.2 yes 100