When will the FDA approve Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that When will the FDA approve Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,085.80 open interest and a wide 10¢ spread, suggesting the 35¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,085.80 open interest and a wide 10¢ spread, suggesting the 35¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 236% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine approval odds, while the 502% realized volatility and 3.36 vol ratio indicate this contract has experienced severe price swings—notably jumping from 17¢ to 26¢ over seven days. With 440 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this appears to be a speculative position in an illiquid niche market where large moves can occur on minimal trading activity.
Resolution rules
If the FDA approves Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema for marketing before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFDAAPPROVALDATENTLA-LONV-27JUL01 yes 100