Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?
Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 313% implied yield on the Yes side versus 63.2% on the No side, suggesting significant disagreement about Young Thug's likelihood of appearing on Drake's 'Iceman' album.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 313% implied yield on the Yes side versus 63.2% on the No side, suggesting significant disagreement about Young Thug's likelihood of appearing on Drake's 'Iceman' album. The price has surged 417% over seven days (from 6¢ to 31¢), indicating either new information about the project or shifting sentiment, though the thin $58.86 daily volume and wide 13¢ spread raise liquidity concerns that could amplify volatility. With 260 days to expiry and a low Cliff Risk Index of 2, there's substantial time for resolution, but traders should be cautious given the illiquid conditions and the speculative nature of entertainment outcomes.
Resolution rules
If Young Thug is featured on Drake's album 'Iceman' before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-YOU yes 100