Will President of France be the first to leave office?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will President of France be the first to leave office?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2045. This market shows extreme volatility (276% realized vol) and thin liquidity ($2,379 open interest, $3 daily volume) despite a 20-year time horizon, suggesting it's primarily a novelty contract with minimal institutional participation.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (276% realized vol) and thin liquidity ($2,379 open interest, $3 daily volume) despite a 20-year time horizon, suggesting it's primarily a novelty contract with minimal institutional participation. The price has surged 48% over seven days (27¢ to 40¢), though the 3¢ spread and neutral regime indicate no clear directional conviction from informed traders. The 8.0% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated relative to the contract's duration and should be discounted heavily given the illiquidity and elevated cliff risk index of 2.
Resolution rules
If the individual holding the title of President of France at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXG7LEADEROUT-45JAN01-EMAC yes 100