Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before May 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing from 11¢ to 3¢ over seven days, suggesting either strengthened confidence in Gabbard's tenure or resolution of prior uncertainty.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing from 11¢ to 3¢ over seven days, suggesting either strengthened confidence in Gabbard's tenure or resolution of prior uncertainty. With only 11 days to expiry and minimal 24-hour volume of $595.18 against $30K open interest, liquidity is severely constrained, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. The extreme 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the illiquidity floor pricing rather than genuine market conviction, and the 32 Cliff Risk Index signals elevated volatility risk as the May 1 deadline approaches.
Resolution rules
If Tulsi Gabbard leaves as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGABBARDOUT-26-MAY01 yes 100