Will Megan Degenfelder be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming?
Prediction markets currently give a 76% probability that Will Megan Degenfelder be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming?. This contract trades at 76¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 69¢ price and $1,967 open interest, suggesting the quoted price may not reflect true market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 69¢ price and $1,967 open interest, suggesting the quoted price may not reflect true market consensus. The "No" side offers a striking 468% implied yield versus just 70.8% for "Yes," indicating severe mispricing or that traders heavily doubt Degenfelder's nomination chances despite the 69% headline probability. With 201 days to expiration and a realized volatility of 271%, this market exhibits high uncertainty and cliff risk (score of 3), making the current price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Also on polymarket at 65¢(Δ +11¢)
Resolution rules
If Megan Degenfelder wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Wyoming Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVWYNOMR-26-MDEG yes 100