What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 37¢ (37% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 278.0% and 73.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced significant bearish momentum, declining 21% over seven days to 37¢, suggesting declining conviction in a price increase despite the expansive 26-month window through 2027.

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37¢

Bid/Ask 34/39¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $96.95·OI $19,857.37·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXGPTCOST-27

7-day price114 snapshots · 3 regime

45¢34¢ current

Apr 833¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

The market has experienced significant bearish momentum, declining 21% over seven days to 37¢, suggesting declining conviction in a price increase despite the expansive 26-month window through 2027. The 273% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated relative to the modest 4¢ spread and thin $312 daily volume, indicating low liquidity may be distorting pricing rather than reflecting genuine market confidence. With neutral regime conditions and a low cliff risk index of 2, this appears to be a liquidity-driven mispricing rather than a fundamental shift in expectations about OpenAI's pricing strategy.

Resolution rules

If either ChatGPT Pro or Plus have a price increase after December 19, 2024 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 278.0%

IY (No) 73.8%

Adj IY 139%

CRI 2

▶ Full indicator table (4)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	278.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	73.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	139%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 6:50:27 PM

SF edge 23.0¢ yesObservability mediumEvent type financial

Edges (1)

NO +23¢thesis — Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. A

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 6:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGPTCOST-27 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →