Will the heating oil close price be above 3.849 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 3.849 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The Yes position shows an extreme 5622% annualized yield despite only 37% implied probability, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the thin $198 open interest and $194 daily volume.
Analysis
The Yes position shows an extreme 5622% annualized yield despite only 37% implied probability, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the thin $198 open interest and $194 daily volume. The market has collapsed 12 cents over seven days (from 44¢ to 32¢), yet realized volatility sits at 8579% with a Vol Ratio of 4.26, indicating the contract's price swings far exceed underlying heating oil movements and pointing to potential manipulation or data artifacts. With just 14 days to expiration and a 2.5/hour information arrival rate, the neutral regime and low Cliff Risk Index suggest this is primarily a liquidity/pricing inefficiency rather than a fundamental uncertainty about April 2026 heating oil levels.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| 3.849 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILMON-26APR3017-T3.849 yes 100