Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above.... This contract trades at 74¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. The market is pricing a 70% probability that Hormuz transit calls will exceed 60 on a 7-day moving average before August 2026, but the extreme 799% implied yield on the No side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $7,790 open interest is modest for a binary with 107 days to expiry.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 70% probability that Hormuz transit calls will exceed 60 on a 7-day moving average before August 2026, but the extreme 799% implied yield on the No side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $7,790 open interest is modest for a binary with 107 days to expiry. The realized volatility of 313% and vol ratio of 2.52 indicate this contract has experienced outsized price swings, with the price climbing 8 cents over seven days, though the tight 3-cent spread and $5.1k daily volume suggest the market lacks depth to validate the extreme tail probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801 yes 100