Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above.... This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2026. The market is pricing an 80% probability that transit calls will exceed 60, but the extreme 992% implied yield on the No side suggests severe mispricing or that traders heavily doubt the resolution mechanism's reliability—particularly given the narrow 4¢ spread and low $266 daily volume relative to $1.4k open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing an 80% probability that transit calls will exceed 60, but the extreme 992% implied yield on the No side suggests severe mispricing or that traders heavily doubt the resolution mechanism's reliability—particularly given the narrow 4¢ spread and low $266 daily volume relative to $1.4k open interest. The 7-day price surge from 65¢ to 81¢ combined with 121% realized volatility and a 1.58 vol ratio indicates recent bullish information arrival (0.7 events/hour), though the neutral regime and 168-day runway to expiry leave substantial room for geopolitical shocks to the Strait's shipping patterns.
Resolution rules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261001 yes 100