Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above.... This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. The market is pricing in an 84% probability that transit calls will exceed 60, but the extreme 509.8% implied yield on the No side suggests severe mispricing or genuine tail-risk hedging demand—this asymmetry warrants caution.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 84% probability that transit calls will exceed 60, but the extreme 509.8% implied yield on the No side suggests severe mispricing or genuine tail-risk hedging demand—this asymmetry warrants caution. Volume is thin at $2,512.65 over 24 hours with $5,129.88 open interest, and the sharp 72-cent rally from 11¢ over the tracking period indicates either new bullish information on Hormuz traffic or short covering rather than fundamental conviction. With 350 days to resolution and a modest 1¢ spread, the cliff risk index of 5 suggests potential volatility spikes around geopolitical events affecting Middle Eastern shipping.
Resolution rules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before April 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270401 yes 100