Will there be more than 7 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Will there be more than 7 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. The market is pricing in a 41% probability of exceeding 7 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, down notably from 47¢ a week ago, suggesting recent sentiment has shifted toward fewer storms.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 41% probability of exceeding 7 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, down notably from 47¢ a week ago, suggesting recent sentiment has shifted toward fewer storms. The 19¢ spread and minimal $10 daily volume indicate extremely thin liquidity, making this contract highly illiquid and vulnerable to slippage on larger trades. The asymmetric implied yields (229.2% for Yes vs. 110.7% for No) reflect the wide bid-ask spread rather than genuine market conviction, and with 229 days to expiry, there's substantial time for this pricing to shift as we approach the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 7 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T7 yes 100