Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facin.... This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 16¢ price reflects a low probability outcome with extremely asymmetric payoffs—the Yes side offers 796.6% implied yield versus just 24.8% for No, suggesting significant tail risk despite the low base case.
Analysis
The 16¢ price reflects a low probability outcome with extremely asymmetric payoffs—the Yes side offers 796.6% implied yield versus just 24.8% for No, suggesting significant tail risk despite the low base case. Volume is thin at $11.8 in 24 hours against $6,051 open interest, indicating limited liquidity that could amplify price swings as the Jan 1, 2027 deadline approaches over the next 260 days. The recent downward drift from 16¢ to 15¢ and moderate cliff risk score of 6 suggest this niche policy question may see sporadic repricing around legislative developments rather than steady trading.
Resolution rules
If legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXICEREFORM-ID yes 100