Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026
Leader sits at 8% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Separate HSI from ICE
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Mask ban
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
208 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will legislation that
Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras become law in 2026?: Mandatory body-worn cameras
KXICEREFORM-CAM
Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code become law before Jan 1, 2027?: QR-code identification
KXICEREFORM-QR
Will legislation that prohibits ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement operations from wearing facial coverings, with limited exceptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Mask ban
KXICEREFORM-MASK
Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Visible identification
KXICEREFORM-ID
Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026?: Separate HSI from ICE
KXICEREFORM-HSI
Analysis
This prediction reflects market expectation that Congress will pass legislation separating Homeland Security Investigations from Immigration and Customs Enforcement into its own DHS entity by the end of 2026. The 85% probability suggests traders view such restructuring as likely given current political dynamics, though Congress must act within the compressed 2026 timeline. The main drivers are whether HSI separation gains bipartisan support—supported by those viewing it as modernizing federal law enforcement—and whether other immigration-related legislation takes priority in congressional bandwidth. The critical catalyst is the remainder of the 2026 legislative calendar; absent action by summer recess or during the post-recess session, the probability of year-end passage would decline substantially. Market pricing likely reflects recent legislative proposals or statements signaling readiness to advance this reform, though the substantial gap between this 85% and related immigration bills priced at 54% suggests uncertainty about sequencing and political capital allocation among competing DHS priorities.
- ›Actual legislative text or formal bill introduction with co-sponsor count tracking support across both chambers
- ›Congressional floor scheduling decisions during 2026 calendar—whether leadership designates time for HSI separation debate before August or September
- ›Comparative momentum of competing immigration/DHS legislation (ICE ERO funding, visa reforms) that may compete for legislative time
- ›Public statements from relevant committee chairs (Judiciary, Homeland Security) indicating timeline for HSI separation consideration
- ›Market price discrepancy between HSI separation (85%) and closely-related ICE funding (54%) suggesting traders differentiate legislative probability by perceived difficulty
What moved the line
- Jun 4Mandatory body-worn cameras↓4pp8→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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