Who will IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Who will IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This Rippling IPO market shows a notable 2¢ cross-venue gap favoring Kalshi at 14¢ versus Polymarket's 12¢, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity or venue-specific liquidity differences.
Analysis
This Rippling IPO market shows a notable 2¢ cross-venue gap favoring Kalshi at 14¢ versus Polymarket's 12¢, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity or venue-specific liquidity differences. The extremely high implied yield of 1,268% on the Yes side reflects the low absolute price, but the modest 24-hour volume of $165 and thin 4¢ spread indicate illiquidity that could amplify slippage on larger positions. The 7-point price rise over seven days (7¢ to 10¢) combined with 259 days to expiry suggests growing confidence in a pre-2027 IPO, though the high cliff risk index of 9 warns of potential binary resolution volatility.
Resolution rules
If Rippling confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPO-26-RIPPLING yes 100