What is the current probability for "When will Deel IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 29¢ (29% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 1, 2027. 344 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Deel IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 354.9% and 31.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Deel IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Deel IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that When will Deel IPO?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $109 open interest, making the 29¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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29¢

Bid/Ask 23/32¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $109·Closes Apr 1, 2027·344d remaining

KXIPODEEL-27APR01

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $109 open interest, making the 29¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 331% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine probability assessment, while the wide 9¢ spread further signals minimal market depth. With 349 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk score of 3, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet on Deel's IPO timeline rather than an efficiently-priced prediction.

Resolution rules

If Deel confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 354.9%

IY (No) 31.7%

Adj IY 177%

CRI 3

Overround 0.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	354.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	31.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	177%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:36:30 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPODEEL-27APR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →