What is the current probability for "When will Deel IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 18¢ (18% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Deel IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 700.6% and 29.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Deel IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Deel IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that When will Deel IPO?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,509 open interest, making the 20¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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18¢

Bid/Ask 17/24¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $1,469.32·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXIPODEEL-27JAN01

7-day price119 snapshots · 2 regime

25¢17¢ current

Apr 817¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,509 open interest, making the 20¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 642% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine market consensus, especially given the 407% realized volatility and recent 6-cent price decline over seven days. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime, traders should be cautious about the wide 4¢ spread and consider that the low information arrival rate (0.6/h) suggests limited news flow to drive conviction in either direction.

Resolution rules

If Deel confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 700.6%

IY (No) 29.4%

Adj IY 350%

CRI 5

Overround 0.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	700.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	29.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	350%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:35:43 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPODEEL-27JAN01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →