What is the current probability for "When will Discord IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 70¢ (70% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 1, 2027. 344 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Discord IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 65.0% and 173.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Discord IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Discord IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 70% probability that When will Discord IPO?. This contract trades at 70¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $321 open interest, making the 70¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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70¢

Bid/Ask 62/70¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $321·Closes Apr 1, 2027·344d remaining

KXIPODISCORD-27APR01

7-day price20 snapshots · 2 regime

64¢62¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 19

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $321 open interest, making the 70¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The dramatically asymmetric implied yields—61.4% for Yes versus 178% for No—suggest the market may be mispriced, with the No side offering substantially better risk-adjusted returns at 89% despite the lower probability. The sharp 8¢ price recovery over seven days (from 63¢ to 70¢) combined with the wide 8¢ spread indicates thin order books and high execution risk for any meaningful trade size.

Resolution rules

If Discord confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 65.0%

IY (No) 173.0%

Adj IY 86%

CRI 2

Overround 4.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	65.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	173.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	86%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:30:13 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPODISCORD-27APR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →