What is the current probability for "When will Glean IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 20¢ (20% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 1, 2027. 285 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Glean IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 724.9% and 22.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Glean IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Glean IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that When will Glean IPO?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market shows zero trading activity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) with a wide 9¢ spread, indicating severe illiquidity and unreliable pricing despite the 290-day timeframe.

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20¢mid

Bid/Ask 15/24¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Feb 1, 2027·285d remaining

KXIPOGLEAN-27FEB01

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows zero trading activity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) with a wide 9¢ spread, indicating severe illiquidity and unreliable pricing despite the 290-day timeframe. The 0¢ price implies near-zero probability of a Glean IPO by February 2027, yet the theoretical Yes yield of 660.4% suggests significant mispricing or reflects the market's extreme skepticism about near-term IPO prospects for the enterprise search company. The high cliff risk index (5) combined with neutral regime conditions warns that this contract carries substantial execution risk and should be treated as highly speculative given the complete absence of market participants.

Resolution rules

If Glean confirms an IPO before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 724.9%

IY (No) 22.6%

Adj IY 362%

CRI 6

Overround 0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	724.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	22.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	362%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:25:28 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOGLEAN-27FEB01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →