SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·10 source contracts·Kalshi 10·refreshed just now·Closes Jun 1, 2027 · 340d

When will Glean IPO

Leader sits at 17% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

17%

Before Jun 1, 2027

runner-up 16¢leader 17¢

Outcomes

10

winner-take-all

Runner-up

16¢

Before May 1, 2027

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 1, 2027

340 days

Venue

Kalshi

10 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBefore Jun 1, 2027: 18% on 2026-06-09Before May 1, 2027: 16% (5 days, 2 points)Before May 1, 2027: 16% on 2026-06-15Before Apr 1, 2027: 15% (5 days, 2 points)Before Apr 1, 2027: 15% on 2026-06-14
Before Jun 1, 202718¢Before May 1, 202716¢Before Apr 1, 202715¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 5d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 28% probability reflects market expectations that Glean, an AI-powered enterprise search startup, will complete an initial public offering by a specified date. The current level suggests traders view an IPO as possible but not imminent, balancing Glean's strong market position and funding against typical timelines for private companies to go public. Key drivers include the company's recent funding rounds, current valuation, and broader market conditions for tech IPOs. The probability would rise if Glean files S-1 documents or announces IPO plans; it would fall if the company raises additional private funding, signals preference for staying private, or if market conditions deteriorate. The most significant near-term catalyst would be any official announcement or regulatory filing indicating an IPO timeline. Comparison markets show SpaceX trading at 79% probability before July 2026, while Anthropic's IPO announcement odds sit around 72% by November 2026, suggesting the market views Glean's path to public markets as materially less certain than some peers in the same funding era.

  • Glean's funding history and current valuation relative to IPO-ready comparable companies in enterprise AI
  • Market appetite for AI software IPOs as measured by recent debuts and performance of comparable public companies
  • Any public statements from Glean leadership or investors regarding IPO timing or intentions
  • Current macroeconomic conditions and equity market receptivity to software company debuts
  • Glean's revenue growth rate and path to profitability relative to historical IPO entry points for enterprise software

Recently closed in markets

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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