When will Glean IPO
Leader sits at 17% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jun 1, 2027
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Before May 1, 2027
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2027
340 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will Glean IPO
When will Glean IPO?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXIPOGLEAN-26AUG01
When will Glean IPO?: Before May 1, 2027
KXIPOGLEAN-27MAY01
When will Glean IPO?: Before Mar 1, 2027
KXIPOGLEAN-27MAR01
When will Glean IPO?: Before Jun 1, 2027
KXIPOGLEAN-27JUN01
When will Glean IPO?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXIPOGLEAN-27JAN01
When will Glean IPO?: Before Feb 1, 2027
KXIPOGLEAN-27FEB01
When will Glean IPO?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXIPOGLEAN-27APR01
When will Glean IPO?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXIPOGLEAN-26NOV01
When will Glean IPO?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXIPOGLEAN-26JUL01
When will Glean IPO?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXIPOGLEAN-26DEC01
Analysis
This 28% probability reflects market expectations that Glean, an AI-powered enterprise search startup, will complete an initial public offering by a specified date. The current level suggests traders view an IPO as possible but not imminent, balancing Glean's strong market position and funding against typical timelines for private companies to go public. Key drivers include the company's recent funding rounds, current valuation, and broader market conditions for tech IPOs. The probability would rise if Glean files S-1 documents or announces IPO plans; it would fall if the company raises additional private funding, signals preference for staying private, or if market conditions deteriorate. The most significant near-term catalyst would be any official announcement or regulatory filing indicating an IPO timeline. Comparison markets show SpaceX trading at 79% probability before July 2026, while Anthropic's IPO announcement odds sit around 72% by November 2026, suggesting the market views Glean's path to public markets as materially less certain than some peers in the same funding era.
- ›Glean's funding history and current valuation relative to IPO-ready comparable companies in enterprise AI
- ›Market appetite for AI software IPOs as measured by recent debuts and performance of comparable public companies
- ›Any public statements from Glean leadership or investors regarding IPO timing or intentions
- ›Current macroeconomic conditions and equity market receptivity to software company debuts
- ›Glean's revenue growth rate and path to profitability relative to historical IPO entry points for enterprise software
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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