When will OpenAI IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that When will OpenAI IPO?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 60% probability of OpenAI IPOing by February 2027, but the extremely thin $1 daily volume and wide 6¢ spread suggest limited conviction and poor price discovery.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 60% probability of OpenAI IPOing by February 2027, but the extremely thin $1 daily volume and wide 6¢ spread suggest limited conviction and poor price discovery. The 207% realized volatility and 1.98 vol ratio indicate substantial uncertainty, while the asymmetric implied yields (111.5% Yes vs 141.8% No) suggest the No side is underpriced relative to tail risk, particularly given OpenAI's recent valuation milestones and the 290-day timeframe. The 0.9 info arrivals per hour and neutral regime point to steady news flow without directional bias, making this a speculative position with meaningful liquidity risk.
Resolution rules
If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOOPENAI-27FEB01 yes 100