What is the current probability for "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 94¢ (94% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 1, 2027. 344 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 8.0% and 1408.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will SpaceX IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that When will SpaceX IPO?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (94%) that SpaceX will IPO by April 2027, yet the extraordinarily skewed implied yields—6.7% for Yes versus 1,638% for No—suggest severe liquidity constraints on the No side, with only $5,014 in open interest across 349 days.

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94¢

Bid/Ask 93/96¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $5,019·Closes Apr 1, 2027·344d remaining

KXIPOSPACEX-27APR01

7-day price7 snapshots · 18 regime

95¢93¢ current

Apr 1493¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (94%) that SpaceX will IPO by April 2027, yet the extraordinarily skewed implied yields—6.7% for Yes versus 1,638% for No—suggest severe liquidity constraints on the No side, with only $5,014 in open interest across 349 days. The flat 7-day price action and tight 2¢ spread indicate consensus around this outcome, though the 16 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution about potential sharp repricing if SpaceX's timeline shifts materially.

Resolution rules

If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 8.0%

IY (No) 1408.6%

Adj IY 704%

CRI 13

Overround 9.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	8.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1408.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	704%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	9.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:30:06 PM

Observability highEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOSPACEX-27APR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →