What is the current probability for "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 93¢ (93% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 1, 2027. 285 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 6.7% and 2430.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will SpaceX IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that When will SpaceX IPO?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. The market is pricing in a 93% probability of SpaceX going public by February 2027, reflecting strong consensus despite zero 24-hour volume and thin liquidity ($5,841 open interest).

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93¢

Bid/Ask 95/96¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $6,062·Closes Feb 1, 2027·285d remaining

KXIPOSPACEX-27FEB01

7-day price15 snapshots · 3 regime

95¢95¢ current

Apr 1492¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing in a 93% probability of SpaceX going public by February 2027, reflecting strong consensus despite zero 24-hour volume and thin liquidity ($5,841 open interest). The extreme 1,970% implied yield on the "No" side signals minimal conviction in an IPO failure, though the 16 Cliff Risk Index suggests meaningful binary event risk remains. With 290 days to expiry and the price stable at 94¢ over the past week, this appears to be a consensus trade with limited recent activity rather than a dynamic market.

Resolution rules

If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6.7%

IY (No) 2430.6%

Adj IY 1215%

CRI 19

Overround 9.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	6.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2430.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1215%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	9.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:29:58 PM

Observability highEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOSPACEX-27FEB01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →