What is the current probability for "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 96¢ (96% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2027. 374 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 6.2% and 1527.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will SpaceX IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that When will SpaceX IPO?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2027. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (96%) that SpaceX will IPO by May 2027, yet the zero 24-hour volume and thin $5,075 open interest suggest minimal conviction behind this consensus.

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96¢

Bid/Ask 94/96¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $100·OI $6,087·Closes May 1, 2027·374d remaining

KXIPOSPACEX-27MAY01

7-day price6 snapshots · 18 regime

95¢94¢ current

Apr 894¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (96%) that SpaceX will IPO by May 2027, yet the zero 24-hour volume and thin $5,075 open interest suggest minimal conviction behind this consensus. The dramatic 1,829% implied yield on the No side reflects the asymmetric risk profile—while a Yes resolution would return only 5.1%, a surprise non-IPO would yield massive returns, indicating the market may be overweighting the base case despite SpaceX's historical reluctance to go public and Elon Musk's stated preference to remain private.

Resolution rules

If SpaceX confirms an IPO before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6.2%

IY (No) 1527.8%

Adj IY 764%

CRI 16

Overround 9.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	6.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1527.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	764%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	9.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:30:31 PM

Observability highEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOSPACEX-27MAY01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →