Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above 1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above 1%?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 65,632.7% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 65,632.7% implied yield on the Yes side. With only 13 days until expiration and a 12¢ spread, the market appears abandoned or mispriced—Italy's recent GDP growth has consistently hovered near 0.5-1%, making a sub-1% outcome for Q1 2026 plausible but not certain enough to justify zero probability. The high cliff risk index (24) suggests significant resolution uncertainty, likely due to incomplete or delayed Q1 2026 GDP data availability at the April 30 close date.
Resolution rules
If Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 is above 1 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXITGDPYOYA-26APR30-T1 yes 100