Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%
Leader sits at 88% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 63%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.0%
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
63¢
Above 0.4%
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$244
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above
Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2%
KXDEGDPYOYF-26JUL30-T-0.2
Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%
KXDEGDPYOYF-26JUL30-T0.0
Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4%
KXDEGDPYOYF-26JUL30-T-0.4
Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above 1.2%?: Above 1.2%
KXDEGDPYOYF-26JUL30-T1.2
Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0%
KXDEGDPYOYF-26JUL30-T1.0
Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8%
KXDEGDPYOYF-26JUL30-T0.8
Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
KXDEGDPYOYF-26JUL30-T0.6
Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXDEGDPYOYF-26JUL30-T0.4
Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXDEGDPYOYF-26JUL30-T0.2
Analysis
Markets currently assess a 94% probability that Germany's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 will exceed -0.2%, reflecting expectations of either modest growth or a contraction smaller than -0.2%. The contract pricing suggests traders believe Germany's economy will avoid severe contraction in the second quarter. The current probability reflects recent economic data, ECB policy signals, and forecasts from institutional economists. Q2 2026 GDP figures will be released in mid-August 2026, providing the definitive outcome. Downside risks include persistent weakness in manufacturing, energy costs, or geopolitical shocks; upside factors include stronger consumer demand or industrial recovery. The spread across related contracts (with outcomes at 0.0%, 0.2%, and 0.4% showing markedly lower probabilities) indicates uncertainty about whether growth will be positive versus slightly negative.
- ›Official Destatis Q2 2026 flash estimate, scheduled for August 2026, will determine the final outcome
- ›Current contract pricing shows 94% confidence in growth above -0.2% but only 48% confidence in growth above 0.4%, indicating a narrow expected range
- ›Recent German economic surveys and PMI data heading into Q2 2026 will influence probability adjustments before the release
- ›ECB monetary policy stance and eurozone-wide demand conditions directly affect Germany's export-dependent manufacturing sector
- ›External shocks such as energy price spikes or trade disruptions between the forecast date and August release could shift probabilities materially
What moved the line
- Jul 25Above -0.2%↓47pp48→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 26Above -0.2%↑47pp1→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Above 0.4%↑39pp20→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 27Above -0.2%↓25pp48→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 28Above -0.2%↑25pp23→48¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.6%last 95% · 1d
- Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -1%last 80% · 1d
- Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%last 91% · 1d
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 35% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 39% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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