Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick be out as Congresswoman before May 1, 2026?
KXLEAVECHERFILUS-26MAY · closes May 1, 2026 · 16 days remaining
Price
Last
51¢
Bid
49¢
Ask
53¢
Spread
4¢
24h Volume
$3,775
Open Interest
$3,678
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 2353.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 2172.9% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.9% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1802% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.88 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.6/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2354% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
13 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 12:54:37 AM
About this market
If Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leaves the House before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXLEAVECHERFILUS-26MAY yes 100