Will Auxerre be Relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025-26 Season?
Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will Auxerre be Relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025-26 Season?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 74¢ spread despite only 46 days to expiration, suggesting minimal trading interest in Auxerre's relegation prospects.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 74¢ spread despite only 46 days to expiration, suggesting minimal trading interest in Auxerre's relegation prospects. The 79¢ price implies a heavily skewed probability, yet the asymmetric implied yields (12,404.7% for Yes versus 50.5% for No) and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 16 indicate significant structural imbalance—likely reflecting thin order books rather than genuine market conviction. The recent 3¢ price decline over seven days combined with the small $6,752 open interest suggests this contract may struggle to attract meaningful liquidity before resolution.
Resolution rules
If Auxerre is relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLIGUE1RELEGATION-26-AUX yes 100