Will Rosena Allin-Khan win the 2028 London mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Rosena Allin-Khan win the 2028 London mayoral election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2029. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $331 in open interest, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 6¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $331 in open interest, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 6¢ spread. The astronomical 1065.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty about Allin-Khan's candidacy itself rather than her electoral prospects. With over 1,100 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 32, the market has time for price discovery, but the negligible trading activity and extreme yield asymmetry warrant caution before treating this as a genuine probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If Rosena Allin-Khan wins the 2028 London mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLONDONMAYOR-28MAY01-RALL yes 100