Will Rosena Allin-Khan win the 2028 London mayoral election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
6 contracts
Closes
May 1, 2029
981 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will James Cleverly win the 2028 London mayoral election
Will James Cleverly win the 2028 London mayoral election?: James Cleverly
KXLONDONMAYOR-28MAY01-JCLE
Cluster 2
Will Laila Cunningham win the 2028 London mayoral election
Will Laila Cunningham win the 2028 London mayoral election?: Laila Cunningham
KXLONDONMAYOR-28MAY01-LCUN
Cluster 3
Will Mete Coban win the 2028 London mayoral election
Will Mete Coban win the 2028 London mayoral election?: Mete Coban
KXLONDONMAYOR-28MAY01-MCOB
Cluster 4
Will Rosena Allin-Khan win the 2028 London mayoral election
Will Rosena Allin-Khan win the 2028 London mayoral election?: Rosena Allin-Khan
KXLONDONMAYOR-28MAY01-RALL
Cluster 5
Will Sadiq Khan win the 2028 London mayoral election
Will Sadiq Khan win the 2028 London mayoral election?: Sadiq Khan
KXLONDONMAYOR-28MAY01-SKHA
Cluster 6
Will Zack Polanski win the 2028 London mayoral election
Will Zack Polanski win the 2028 London mayoral election?: Zack Polanski
KXLONDONMAYOR-28MAY01-ZPOL
Analysis
This market estimates a 12% chance that Rosena Allin-Khan, the current Labour MP for Tooting, will win the mayoralty of London in the 2028 election. The probability reflects her status as a prominent Labour politician in a city with strong Labour support, but tempered by the crowded field of potential candidates and the uncertainty inherent in multi-candidate races held more than two years away. The main factors shaping this estimate are her current political profile and whether Labour retains momentum heading into 2028, alongside competition from other Labour figures and the Conservative challenger. The December 2028 mayoral election itself will be the primary catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, though earlier developments like formal candidate announcements or significant shifts in London-wide polling could meaningfully shift expectations.
- ›Allin-Khan would need to secure Labour's official nomination in a potentially contested internal process with other prominent party members also interested in the role
- ›Labour's electoral standing in London and nationally between now and 2028 will influence baseline expectations for any Labour candidate's viability
- ›Her profile as an MP and former shadow minister makes her a credible contender but not a prohibitive favorite, suggesting other candidates are viewed as realistic alternatives
- ›The incumbent mayor's political affiliation and performance track record typically influences voter behavior and candidate recruitment in mayoral races
- ›Historical London mayoral elections show variation in outcomes despite demographic favorability, indicating that frontrunner status is not determinative
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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