Will at least 4 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will at least 4 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market is pricing an extremely low probability (9%) for four or more Republican Senate primary losses in 2026, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 2092% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or that traders view this outcome as nearly impossible.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely low probability (9%) for four or more Republican Senate primary losses in 2026, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 2092% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or that traders view this outcome as nearly impossible. With only $174.44 in 24-hour volume against $69,021 open interest, liquidity is thin relative to positions held, creating potential execution challenges and indicating limited conviction among active traders. The recent price movement from 6¢ to 8¢ over seven days shows modest upward momentum, though the 201-day timeframe to resolution provides ample opportunity for repricing as primary season approaches and candidate viability becomes clearer.
Resolution rules
If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is at least 4, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATER-26NOV03-4 yes 100