Will exactly 2 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026
Leader sits at 93% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
3
Spread
74pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$22K
liquid
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
66 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will exactly
Analysis
This market estimates a 21% chance that exactly two Senate Republicans will lose their primary elections in 2026. Primary challenges to incumbents depend on factors like district/state ideology, fundraising strength, endorsements, and candidate quality. Historical context matters: Senate Republican primary losses have been relatively rare in recent cycles, though they do occur during waves of dissatisfaction with establishment members. The probability reflects expectations that while primary challenges will happen, the specific outcome of exactly two losers is neither highly likely nor highly unlikely. Resolution requires tracking all Senate Republican primaries through the 2026 election cycle, with most contests occurring between March and September 2026. Related markets suggest uncertainty about the total number of Republican primary losses, with traders pricing lower odds for outcomes of 4+ Senate losses (9 cents) but higher odds for exactly 1 loss (29 cents), indicating a relatively flat distribution across different scenarios.
- ›Current Senate Republican incumbents facing well-funded, ideologically-motivated primary challengers and their polling performance relative to primary voters
- ›National political environment and any major scandals or legislative votes that might energize specific primary constituencies between now and primary season
- ›Endorsement patterns from Trump, state party officials, and major outside groups, which have historically influenced Republican primary outcomes
- ›Primary election calendar timing and field fragmentation—whether multiple challengers split anti-incumbent votes or consolidate support
- ›Historical baseline: Senate Republican primary defeats averaged roughly 1-2 per cycle in recent decades, making exactly 2 neither extreme nor baseline
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (93% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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