Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing February 23, 2028. This market on Maria Pappas winning Chicago's 2027 mayoral election shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,905 open interest, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market on Maria Pappas winning Chicago's 2027 mayoral election shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,905 open interest, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable. The 619.5% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and suggests severe mispricing given the candidate's status and timeline, though the wide 7¢ spread and stagnant 7-day price action (flat at 8¢) indicate minimal market confidence in price discovery. With 678 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 12, this appears to be a speculative micro-market where the quoted probability may not reflect true odds.
Resolution rules
If Maria Pappas wins Chicago Mayoral Election in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMAYORCHI-27-MPAP yes 100