Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,858 open interest, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable for decision-making.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,858 open interest, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable for decision-making. The 545.9% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and suggests either severe mispricing or that traders view Dunlap as a highly unlikely nominee, though the tight 1¢ spread indicates some market-making activity. With 201 days until expiry and a neutral regime score, there's substantial time for this race to develop, but the lack of trading activity warrants caution before treating this as a genuine probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If Matthew Dunlap wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 ME-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXME02D-26-MDUN yes 100