Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing October 31, 2029. This market on Dorin Recean shows extreme asymmetry with a 253.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 3.1% on the No side, suggesting either significant underpricing of his chances or substantial tail risk priced into the contract.
Analysis
This market on Dorin Recean shows extreme asymmetry with a 253.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 3.1% on the No side, suggesting either significant underpricing of his chances or substantial tail risk priced into the contract. The 11¢ price reflects only an 11% probability despite roughly 3.5 years until expiration, yet liquidity is thin at just $394 open interest with $146 in 24-hour volume, making the quoted spread potentially unreliable for larger positions. The high cliff risk index of 9 and recent price recovery from 9¢ to 10¢ over seven days warrant caution, as this could indicate either accumulating conviction or volatile positioning ahead of Moldova's political developments.
Resolution rules
If Dorin Recean wins the next Moldovan presidential election before Oct 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMOLDOVAPRES-28-DREC yes 100