Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing October 31, 2029. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 253.9% annualized return on the Yes side versus just 3.1% on the No side, suggesting the 16¢ price may undervalue Grosu's chances or reflect very low conviction betting.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 253.9% annualized return on the Yes side versus just 3.1% on the No side, suggesting the 16¢ price may undervalue Grosu's chances or reflect very low conviction betting. The 6¢ spread and minimal $146 daily volume indicate thin liquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for larger positions. With nearly 3.5 years to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, the market faces significant uncertainty around Moldova's political trajectory, though the stable 7-day price action suggests current sentiment has settled.
Resolution rules
If Igor Grosu wins the next Moldovan presidential election before Oct 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMOLDOVAPRES-28-IGRO yes 100