Who will win the next Mongolian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Who will win the next Mongolian presidential election?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing June 29, 2028. This market shows minimal activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $236.05 in open interest, indicating very low liquidity for a binary outcome with 805 days to expiration.
Analysis
This market shows minimal activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $236.05 in open interest, indicating very low liquidity for a binary outcome with 805 days to expiration. The 10¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract price, and the asymmetric implied yields (62.6% for Yes vs. 32.8% for No) suggest the market may be mispriced or reflect genuine uncertainty about Zandanshatar's candidacy rather than election odds. The flat 7-day price action at 42¢ combined with the current 51¢ quote suggests recent repricing, though the lack of volume makes it difficult to assess conviction behind the move.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Mongolian presidential election expected to be held in 2027 at the latest is Gombojavyn Zandanshatar, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMONGOLIAPRES-27-GZAN yes 100