What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk be a trillionaire before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 76¢ (76% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Elon Musk be a trillionaire before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 45.2% and 453.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Elon Musk be a trillionaire before 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Elon Musk be a trillionaire before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 76% probability that Will Elon Musk be a trillionaire before 2027?. This contract trades at 76¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an exceptionally high 79% probability that Musk reaches trillionaire status within 260 days, yet the asymmetric implied yields—37.4% for Yes versus 528.8% for No—reveal deep skepticism among No bettors who demand outsized compensation for the tail risk.

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76¢

Bid/Ask 76/78¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $849.92·OI $88,084.2·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXMUSKTRILLION-27

7-day price276 snapshots · 19 regime

83¢76¢ current

Apr 873¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing an exceptionally high 79% probability that Musk reaches trillionaire status within 260 days, yet the asymmetric implied yields—37.4% for Yes versus 528.8% for No—reveal deep skepticism among No bettors who demand outsized compensation for the tail risk. The extreme 107% realized volatility and modest $202 daily volume suggest thin liquidity despite $88k open interest, making the 5¢ spread potentially misleading given the cliff risk index of 4 and rapid 3¢ price appreciation over seven days.

Resolution rules

If Elon Musk has a net worth more than $1 trillion before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 45.2%

IY (No) 453.7%

Adj IY 448%

CRI 3

RV 156%

VR 2.35

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	45.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	453.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	448%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	156%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.35	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:36:54 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMUSKTRILLION-27 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →