Will Ryan Blaney be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Ryan Blaney be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing November 15, 2026. Ryan Blaney's championship odds are priced at a modest 11¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($1,696.84 in 24h volume), creating a 3¢ spread that suggests limited market depth despite $80.5k open interest.

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11¢
Bid/Ask 10/11¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,781.52·OI $85,199.7·Closes Nov 15, 2026·208d remaining
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-RBLA
7-day price16 snapshots · 60 regime
10¢10¢ current
Apr 127¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

Ryan Blaney's championship odds are priced at a modest 11¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($1,696.84 in 24h volume), creating a 3¢ spread that suggests limited market depth despite $80.5k open interest. The implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high at 1974%, indicating either severe underpricing or significant tail risk that the market is compensating for—this asymmetry warrants caution, as the cliff risk index of 12 suggests potential volatility near resolution. With 213 days until expiry and no price movement over the past week, this market appears relatively stagnant and may be undertraded relative to Blaney's actual championship prospects.

Resolution rules

If Ryan Blaney wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1581.3%
IY (No) 19.5%
Adj IY 712%
CRI 9
Overround -0.2%
LAS 0.10
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1581.3%
IY (No)19.5%
Adj IY712%
CRI9
Overround-0.2%
LAS0.10

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:31:37 PM
Observability lowEvent type sports
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-RBLA yes 100

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