Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 15, 2026
143 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Denny Hamlin be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Denny Hamlin be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Denny Hamlin
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-DHAM
Cluster 2
Will Tyler Reddick be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Tyler Reddick be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Tyler Reddick
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-TRED
Cluster 3
Will Chase Elliott be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Chase Elliott be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Chase Elliott
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-CELL
Cluster 4
Will Kyle Larson be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Kyle Larson be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Kyle Larson
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-KLAR
Cluster 5
Will Ryan Blaney be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Ryan Blaney be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Ryan Blaney
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-RBLA
Cluster 6
Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Chase Briscoe
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-CBRI
Cluster 7
Will Christopher Bell be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Christopher Bell be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Christopher Bell
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-CBEL
Analysis
A 10% probability means the market estimates approximately a 1-in-10 chance that Chase Briscoe wins the NASCAR Cup Series championship this season. This relatively low probability reflects his historical performance and competitive position within a field of dozens of drivers competing for the title. The probability could shift based on two main factors: his consistency in race finishes throughout the season, which determines playoff qualification and seeding, and his team's technical performance relative to established championship contenders. The championship will ultimately be decided in November 2026 through the playoff format, with each race result between now and then providing data that would either strengthen or weaken his odds depending on wins, top-5 finishes, and playoff advancement.
- ›Chase Briscoe's historical championship odds and performance metrics compared to favorites like Ty Gibbs and Joey Logano
- ›His current season statistics through May 2026, including wins, top-5 finishes, and points standing relative to playoff cut-off position
- ›Wood Brothers Racing team's car performance and technical developments compared to higher-funded championship-contending teams
- ›Injury status and driver consistency factors that could affect his ability to compete over the full season and playoffs
- ›Market depth and liquidity of the Briscoe contract, which shows relatively low trading volume ($4,489 in 24h), suggesting limited consensus confidence
What moved the line
- Jun 23Denny Hamlin↑5pp26→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Denny Hamlin↓3pp29→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Tyler Reddick↑3pp14→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Ryan Blaney↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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