Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$41K
9 contracts
Closes
Nov 15, 2026
97 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Joey Logano be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Joey Logano be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Joey Logano
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-JLOG
Cluster 2
Will Denny Hamlin be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Denny Hamlin be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Denny Hamlin
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-DHAM
Cluster 3
Will Ty Gibbs be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Ty Gibbs be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Ty Gibbs
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-TGIB
Cluster 4
Will Christopher Bell be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Christopher Bell be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Christopher Bell
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-CBEL
Cluster 5
Will Ryan Blaney be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Ryan Blaney be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Ryan Blaney
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-RBLA
Cluster 6
Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Chase Briscoe
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-CBRI
Cluster 7
Will Tyler Reddick be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Tyler Reddick be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Tyler Reddick
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-TRED
Cluster 8
Will Chase Elliott be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Chase Elliott be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Chase Elliott
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-CELL
Cluster 9
Will Kyle Larson be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Kyle Larson be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Kyle Larson
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-KLAR
Analysis
Chase Briscoe's 10% championship probability reflects current market assessment of his likelihood to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series title among all eligible drivers. This probability is derived from betting markets and indicates modest but non-negligible odds compared to favorites like Denny Hamlin (37%) and other top contenders. The championship outcome depends on several seasons-long factors: driver performance consistency through the full regular season, playoff advancement and seeding, vehicle reliability and pit crew execution during high-pressure races, and performance in the final championship races. The key catalyst determining whether Briscoe's odds rise or fall will be his results through the regular season and into the NASCAR Playoffs, which structure the path to the championship. His current position in points standings and performance trajectory relative to competitors will meaningfully influence whether his probability increases or decreases as the season progresses.
- ›Chase Briscoe's current points position in the 2026 standings and his performance trend relative to top contenders
- ›Historical consistency of his team's vehicle performance and pit crew execution throughout full-season racing
- ›Playoff seeding and advancement status, which determines his pathway to the championship-deciding final races
- ›Comparative performance metrics against the current favorites (Hamlin at 37%, Reddick at 10%, Blaney at 12%)
- ›Upcoming race schedule performance, particularly in high-point events that significantly impact championship positioning
What moved the line
- Aug 9Christopher Bell↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in sports
- Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...last 13% · 43d
- How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this seasonlast 93% · 52d
- Will Iran Play in the World Cuplast 97% · 54d
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 65d
- ATP Tennis Matcheslast 50% · 65d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In sports
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.