Will there be over 6.5 total games in the Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs?
Prediction markets currently give a 41% probability that Will there be over 6.5 total games in the Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL .... This contract trades at 41¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 8273.9% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 8273.9% implied yield on the Yes side. The 49¢ spread is unusually wide for a binary contract, and the 6 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant pricing instability near expiration in 27 days. A first-round series going to 7 games (the only way to exceed 6.5) has historical probability around 13-15% in NHL playoffs, making the current 0% pricing likely a liquidity artifact rather than true market consensus.
Resolution rules
If above 6.5 games are played in the Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLSERIESGAMES-26MTLTBR1-7 yes 100