2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows classic signs of illiquidity and mispricing: zero volume and open interest with an 8¢ spread indicate virtually no trading activity, while the 307.3% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the 0¢ price is artificially depressed rather than reflecting genuine consensus that Haigh has zero nomination probability.
Analysis
This market shows classic signs of illiquidity and mispricing: zero volume and open interest with an 8¢ spread indicate virtually no trading activity, while the 307.3% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the 0¢ price is artificially depressed rather than reflecting genuine consensus that Haigh has zero nomination probability. The 624-day timeframe to the 2027 Oscars provides ample time for information to accumulate, but the neutral regime score and moderate 5 cliff risk index suggest the market hasn't yet attracted serious participants willing to arbitrage this apparent underpricing. This appears to be a nascent market awaiting liquidity rather than a genuine pricing signal.
Resolution rules
If Andrew Haigh has been nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-AND yes 100