2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?

Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market is essentially dead on arrival with zero trading activity, zero open interest, and a 0¢ price despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting no genuine demand for exposure to Pawlikowski's 2027 Oscar nomination odds.

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36¢
Bid/Ask 29/37¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $138.41·OI $152.46·Closes Dec 31, 2027·619d remaining
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-PAW

Analysis

4d ago

This market is essentially dead on arrival with zero trading activity, zero open interest, and a 0¢ price despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting no genuine demand for exposure to Pawlikowski's 2027 Oscar nomination odds. The extreme 166.6% implied yield on the Yes side is a mathematical artifact of the near-zero price floor rather than a real opportunity, and with 624 days to expiration, the market has ample time to develop liquidity if interest materializes. The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action indicate this contract is simply not capturing trader attention, making it unsuitable for analysis until meaningful volume emerges.

Resolution rules

If Paweł Pawlikowski has been nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 144.4%
IY (No) 24.1%
Adj IY 72%
CRI 2
Overround 2.4%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)144.4%
IY (No)24.1%
Adj IY72%
CRI2
Overround2.4%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
8¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:31:34 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-PAW yes 100

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